Now well into his second term, President Donald Trump is advancing a bold, three-pillar strategy for the Middle East: expanding the Abraham Accords, boosting regional connectivity through the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC+), and aggressively countering adversaries like Iran and Turkey.
1. Expanding the Abraham Accords
Trump aims to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, following normalization deals with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are ongoing, with the U.S. offering security guarantees and economic incentives. However, Riyadh remains cautious due to domestic sensitivities, its leadership role in the Islamic world, and its longstanding demand for progress on Palestinian statehood—now even more complicated by the war in Gaza and Iran-backed normalization. Other Arab states, too, are wary of popular backlash without tangible progress for Palestinians.
2. Economic and Security Connectivity: IMEC+
Trump is expanding IMEC+ to include Italy, creating an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This trade corridor aims to connect India, the Gulf, and Europe via rail and sea, reducing reliance on routes through Iran and Turkey. Trump is pushing for American companies to lead infrastructure projects, with a focus on cybersecurity and bypassing unstable regions. Yet, logistical challenges, political instability, and potential Turkish interference threaten progress.
3. Countering Iran and Turkey
Trump has reimposed and expanded sanctions on Iran, authorized strikes on Iran-backed militias, and intensified cyber operations targeting Iranian infrastructure. The U.S. is also repositioning forces in the Gulf and backing Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq. Meanwhile, Turkey’s growing aggression in Syria has prompted sanctions and NATO-based pressure. Despite this, both Iran and Turkey continue maneuvering around U.S. efforts via ties with China, Russia, and Qatar.
Strategic Complexities
China and Russia are countering U.S. influence. China’s investments in the Gulf and its role in the Iran-Saudi rapprochement reduce Washington’s leverage. Russia, still influential in Syria, could return militarily and is being courted by some Israeli officials as a counterweight to Turkey. Meanwhile, Trump’s openness to a Russia-mediated nuclear deal with Iran introduces more uncertainty, especially if perceived as favoring Moscow.
Managing Fragile Alliances
Trump must balance diverging priorities between Israel and Saudi Arabia, maintain ties with Egypt and Iraq, and address concerns over his perceived pro-Russia pivot and transactional diplomacy. A proposed U.S. withdrawal from Syria could impact regional stability and U.S. credibility.
Conclusion
Trump’s second-term Middle East strategy is ambitious but fragile. While he envisions deeper regional integration and diminished adversarial influence, success hinges on managing shifting alliances, overcoming logistical and political hurdles, and deterring rival powers. Whether this vision reshapes the region or falters under its own complexity remains to be seen.
Photo: Reuters