By all accounts, peace and prosperity in the Middle East should be a welcome development. Fewer conflicts, stronger economies, and improved regional cooperation — it’s the kind of outcome that should have policymakers in Brussels and Berlin cheering. Yet, when we look closer, there’s an uncomfortable truth hiding beneath the surface: many of Europe’s actions suggest it isn’t rooting for that outcome at all.
The question must be asked — why is Europe afraid of a peaceful and prosperous Middle East?
1. Strategic Interests and Diminished Influence
For decades, instability in the Middle East has served as a convenient pretext for European involvement — diplomatically, militarily, and economically. With conflict and crisis as the backdrop, Europe positions itself as a “mediator,” a “peace broker,” and a “guardian of international norms.” But a Middle East that manages its own affairs — one where nations pursue direct normalization, trade deals, and regional alliances — sidelines those roles. If Israel and Arab nations can make peace without European supervision, Europe loses leverage. And that loss is deeply uncomfortable for a continent that still sees itself as a global arbiter.
2. Economic Threat of a Thriving Region
A stable and economically integrated Middle East, especially one that unites Israel and the Gulf states, poses serious economic competition. These countries are emerging as leaders in energy innovation, logistics, cybersecurity, and advanced technology. Such a bloc could challenge Southern Europe’s economic relevance and siphon off global investment and influence. Europe's economic anxiety, masked behind diplomatic caution, is part of the reason they hesitate to fully support regional breakthroughs.
3. Ideological Discomfort with Israeli Strength
Europe’s foreign policy establishment is heavily invested in an outdated narrative: Israel as the primary obstacle to peace, the Palestinians as perpetual victims, and terror groups as merely “militants” to be managed rather than defeated. But a prosperous Middle East — one that includes a secure, respected, and normalized Israel — shatters this framework. It forces an admission that peace comes not from endless concessions but from strength, sovereignty, and regional cooperation. For those clinging to ideological relics of the past, this is a bitter pill to swallow.
4. Migration and Demographic Anxiety
Ironically, a peaceful Middle East would likely reduce the refugee and migration crises that have plagued Europe for years. Yet, some European policymakers fear new dynamics — economic migration, shifting demographics, or the erosion of their humanitarian narrative. Rather than support policies that lead to long-term regional stability, they default to reactive, short-sighted approaches that only deepen instability and prolong suffering.
5. Colonial Guilt and the Double Standard
Europe’s colonial legacy continues to haunt its foreign policy, leading to a moral relativism that distorts reality. Democracies like Israel are held to impossible standards, while authoritarian regimes and terror groups are excused under the guise of “context” or “resistance.” This imbalance doesn't just harm Israel — it undermines any genuine prospect for peace built on mutual recognition and shared values.
So, is Europe afraid? Not in a simplistic sense. But its policies reveal a deep discomfort with a Middle East that doesn’t conform to its outdated playbook. The Abraham Accords — brokered without European involvement — showed what’s possible when regional actors take charge of their own destiny. Europe should have celebrated. Instead, it hesitated.
Until European leaders are ready to embrace a Middle East built on strength, stability, and sovereign cooperation — rather than conflict management and ideological nostalgia — they will remain out of step with history.
The region is moving on. The question is: will Europe catch up?
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