FEB 5, 2025 JLM 50Β°F 04:03 PM 09:03 AM EST
ICYMI: The cracks in Hezbollah's image: IMPLICATIONS

How does the terrorist organization relate to the elimination of the top "Radwan" commanders?

YONI BEN-MENACHEM: Frustration and anger are growing in Hezbollah following the elimination of the top "Radwan" force by Israel. 

The Israeli message about the determination to return the tens of thousands of evacuees from the northern border to their homes permeates the ranks of Hezbollah, but Hassan Nasrallah is very careful not to react rashly, for a number of reasons:

A. He wants to thoroughly and carefully prepare a measured military response, which will not drag the region into an all-out war, which will give international legitimacy to Israel for an extensive ground operation in Lebanon.

B. He consults with the Iranian leadership on the nature of the response. He estimates that Israel is trying to drag him through its latest actions into a trap, so that he will respond with a heavy attack on the Israeli rear, which will give it legitimacy to launch an extensive ground operation and a massive air attack on all Hezbollah sites and warehouses in Lebanon.

C. The medical treatment of the thousands of field commanders who were injured as a result of the waves of explosions is still ongoing, and Hezbollah's command and control system has not yet been fully restored.

Hezbollah sees the recent Israeli attacks as a new type of conflict, the purpose of which is to force the organization to take certain steps, which will give Israel international legitimacy to carry out its plan for an all-out military conflict in Lebanon.

Sources in Hezbollah claim that Israel formulated a plan to sever the connection between the fighting on the front of the Gaza Strip and the fighting on the northern front and to return tens of thousands of evacuees to their homes on the northern border, but Hezbollah insists and will not agree to any such move without a full and comprehensive ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Lebanese commentators claim that Israel's elimination of Hezbollah's top "Radwan" commanders, led by Ibrahim Akil, stunned and shocked Hezbollah operatives and caused demoralization within the organization, and that through this move Israel succeeded in thwarting any chance of Hezbollah invading the Galilee during the current war.

Currently, Nasrallah does not budge from his positions regarding the cessation of fighting in the Gaza Strip, and does not change his mind. This means that Israel will have to escalate the military operations in Lebanon and exert additional military pressure on it until he does.

The Christians, the Druze and the Sunni Muslims in Lebanon closely follow the military blows that Hezbollah receives from Israel. The sentiments among them are that since Israel's successful cyber attack on thousands of Hezbollah operatives, Hezbollah has gone from attacking Israel and assisting Hamas in the Gaza Strip, to one that takes the strongest blows from Israel without being able to defend itself.

Israel has become the initiator and the one who manages to surprise Hezbollah in the heart of its stronghold in the neighborhood of Al-Dahiah in Beirut. The assessment on the Lebanese street is that in the end Nasrallah will have no choice but to respond forcefully to Israel's attacks.

Hezbollah is in a big dilemma. The image that Nasrallah built for himself over the years as the "defender of the Lebanese state" crashed, and he became ridiculed and vilified in Lebanon and the Arab world as someone who attacks "chicken coops".

However, Hezbollah's military power is still intact, and it has a formidable arsenal of weapons that it can use to attack Israel, and an intact communications network. To increase the pressure on him, Israel will have to destroy this arsenal. It is possible that this is the next step that Israel plans to take in the coming days.

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Comments
G Green 06:29 31.10.2024
πŸ‘»
Murray Levine 23:43 30.10.2024
Newsrael! When was this article first published?
[Anonymous] 23:03 30.10.2024
Nasrallah is dead and gone. Are you trying to bring him back from the dead? Do you miss him that much?
[Anonymous] 22:35 30.10.2024
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[deleted] 22:32 30.10.2024
What is this crap about Nasrallah? He’s dead, so why is all this news old?
M Cohen 22:29 30.10.2024
Nasrallah is very much dead. Why discuss him as if he is still living? This is disappointing.
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