It is a mistake to leverage the elimination of Sinwar to bring the war in Gaza to a quick end as the Americans want
The Biden administration thinks that it is possible to leverage the elimination of Sinwar to bring about a quick end to the war in Gaza, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Mike Duran in his article from today.
According to the reporter, the matter is of great importance in terms of the electoral considerations of the Democrats, but as a Middle East policy it suffers from three fundamental mistakes.
1. THE WAR CANNOT END WITH A CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT WITH HAMAS
Biden believes that it will be possible to force Netanyahu to accept the weakened Hamas as a permanent presence after the war. He assumes that Sinwar's death will cause flexibility among Hamas members which will allow a deal to return the hostages and end the war with an agreed ceasefire.
But Netanyahu's policy is to break up Hamas into its elements, and return hostages by offering each individual element to hand over the hostages in exchange for their lives. Dismantling Hamas into pieces turns the idea of the Biden administration that it is possible to reach an agreement with one complete and united Hamas into a notion whose time has passed, and it is no longer relevant.
2. THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GAZA AND LEBANON
The Biden administration is misreading the connection between these two arenas. He believes that a ceasefire in Gaza will also lead to a settlement with Hezbollah. But Israel has no reason to take the boot off Hezbollah's neck, now that the war is leaning in Israel's favor, and it will be able to obtain much better terms if it continues the campaign.
Better conditions are a necessity for Israel: No government will survive if the displaced people of the north do not feel safe enough to return home.
3. ISRAEL AND IRAN
Biden is misreading the dynamics of Israel's struggle against Iran. The elimination of Sinwar comes at a time when Israel is preparing for an attack on Iran. This attack is necessary to restore Israel's deterrent capability. If the US exerts extreme pressure that will result in the cancellation of the attack on Iran, Israel will have to intensify its war on Hezbollah and Hamas in order to achieve a restoration of deterrence in another way.