NEWSRAEL: Here is Israel's No. 1 American affairs expert: "I promised that the day before the election I would publish the most logical scenario for victory."
First, I will present the two sides and why each can claim victory.
Let's start with the case of Kamala Harris:
First, Harris managed to raise much more money than Trump. Her fundraising strategy has managed to gather broad support, especially among young people and diverse audiences.
¹ Second, the early vote, which includes a lot of women and Generation Z, indicates a positive direction for her.
² Third, polls show that Harris has a slight lead in some states, even if by fractions of a percent.³
On the other hand, Trump's case:
First, in the polls there is a noticeable dissatisfaction with the Harris-Biden administration, which makes it difficult to regain trust, especially regarding the question of whether the country is going in the right direction.
⁴ Second, unlike the 2020 election, when Republicans feared early voting due to the corona, The Republican campaign has been pushing for early voting in recent months, which is affecting normal voting patterns.
⁵ Third, media momentum and gimmicks are on Trump's side. The "garbage can" stories, scandals like the squirrel and others create a stronger communicative conceptual sequence.⁶
So why can both sides win? And what do I think the final result will be?
The main issue I found during my journey in the USA is the issue of inflation. Americans feel the daily impact of the economy. As James Carville said: "it's all about the economy, stupid."
Beyond that, this scenario is reminiscent of the situation that occurred during the days of Grover Cleveland - when a former president was re-elected against an incumbent administration. This time, the election is not just between parties, but between people, and every American knows what his life looked like four years ago compared to today.
Another reason is that I believe there will be a correlation between the results for the House of Representatives and the presidency.
The small but significant advantage for the Republicans according to FiveThirtyEight could affect both the House of Representatives and the presidency. ⁸
Third reason: In all previous years, the advantage in the polls in favor of Clinton and Biden were much more significant than the current gaps in favor of Harris. For example, in Wisconsin in 2020, the poll average was 8% in favor of Biden, but in practice the gap was only 0.6%.⁹
The question of the popular vote: The gap between the candidates is extremely small - where the gap is usually millions, there is a question of whether there is a hidden country that can surprise with a "red" vote.¹⁰
Finally, I see the Jewish vote breaking to an all-time high, and in a country like Pennsylvania, where there are 300,000 Jews, they may be the ones to tip the scales in favor of the Republicans.¹¹
Therefore, my gut feeling is that the most likely candidate to win this election is Donald Trump. Of course, the probability of a Harris victory is still relevant, but in this stagnant tie, when I come to make a decision, I choose my gut feeling.
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¹ Center for Responsive Politics. "Elections Overview." OpenSecrets. https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview.
² Pew Research Center. "2024 Election Survey." Pew Research. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024-election-survey.
³ Silver, Nate. "2024 Election Forecast: President." FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/president.
⁴ RealClearPolitics. "Latest Polls." RealClearPolitics. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls.
⁵ Wall Street Journal. "Election Strategy 2024: Early Voting." https://www.wsj.com/election-strategy-2024-early-voting.
⁶ New York Times. "Trump's Media Momentum." https://www.nytimes.com/trump-media-momentum.
⁷ Investopedia. "Economic Influence in the 2024 Election." https://www.investopedia.com/economic-influence-2024-election.
⁸ Silver, Nate. "2024 Election Forecast: House." FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house.
⁹ Silver, Nate. "2020 Polling Averages: Wisconsin." FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/wisconsin/.
¹⁰ The Cook Political Report. "Presidential Race Analysis." Cook Political. https://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential-race-analysis.
¹¹ Pew Research Center. "The Jewish Vote in 2024." Pew Research. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2024-jewish-vote.