A new, powerful, centralized, Islamist Syria, with an army built by Turkey, would form a powerful instrument in the hands of a Turkish president who has made his politicidal intentions toward Israel very clear.
Last week, Israeli aircraft struck the T4 airbase and Hama airport in Syria, along with two other military airbases.
The operation, according to several Hebrew media reports, was intended to frustrate Turkish efforts to install air defenses and radar systems at the targeted sites.
The Israeli attack forms part of a larger, looming confrontation between Ankara and Jerusalem.
Syria is currently the most active front in this contest. Other points of friction include Judea and Samaria, Gaza, and the eastern Mediterranean.
But what are the driving forces behind the dispute, and why have recent months witnessed a sudden, sharp escalation in its intensity? Are Israel and Turkey set on an inevitable collision course?
Turkey’s President Recep Tayepp Erdogan and the Islamist AKP have held power in Turkey since 2002. Erdogan’s presidency should be seen in historic terms.
The Turkish leader is engaged in the transformation of Turkey, both internally and in its relations with its surroundings.
The recent arrest of Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is the latest indication that Erdogan has no intention of ceding power through the electoral process.
In recent years, step by step, Erdogan has gutted those power centers in Turkey that might have challenged him; the army, the courts, the media, all have been brought to heel. The political opposition, too, is now being neutralized by administrative means.
Regarding Turkey’s foreign relations, the strategy of Erdogan and his allies has been no less transformational.
Ankara has embarked on a strategy of assertion, moving away from the pro-Western stance that characterized Turkish foreign policy in the years of the Cold War.
In place of this pro-US orientation, Turkey has currently embarked on a path that combines alliance with movements of political Islam, with a revanchist, neo-Ottoman outlook, in which Ankara seeks to assert influence unilaterally and then dominate points across a broad swathe of territory stretching from the Gulf to Iraq and the Levant, across the Mediterranean and to Libya.
In seeking to be the dominant power in the region, Turkey has established permanent military bases in Qatar, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, North Cyprus, and Libya.
It has launched military operations against its Kurdish foes in Iraq and Syria in 2016, 2018, and 2019, leading to the de facto control of swathes of territory in both countries.
Turkey’s support for Hamas
Turkish support for Hamas in the Palestinian context forms part of this larger picture, as does the collapse in Israeli-Turkish relations, which is the direct result of Turkey’s transformation under Erdogan.
After a brief apparent rapprochement in the pre-October 2023 period, relations are now at their lowest point. On May 5, 2024, Turkey announced an immediate suspension of all trade with Israel.
The Turkish leader has openly supported Hamas in its war against Israel. Taking part in a prayer service to mark the end of Ramadan on March 30, he said: “May Allah, for the sake of his name… destroy and devastate Zionist Israel.”
Elsewhere, he has compared Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Hitler and asserted that Israel intends to invade Turkey.
An active Hamas office remains in Istanbul. It was from here that the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers was planned, and which launched the 2014 Israel-Hamas war (Operation Protective Edge).
Turkey facilitates Hamas activities across the region and provides Hamas members with Turkish passports.
Image - Reuters