If there is a period that represents a turning point in the regional campaign since October 7, 2023, it is the last few weeks, with a focus on the past week.

Since the IDF completed its offensive operation in the southern Gaza Strip, taking control of the Egypt border known as the "Philadelphi Route" and a significant part of the city of Rafah, we have witnessed a series of significant events with considerable importance for the future of the campaign and a possible trend in the entire region.

While international discussions are ongoing regarding a possible ceasefire in Gaza and a prisoner exchange, the IDF has carried out several dramatic actions in recent weeks: the first was the elimination of Mohammed Deif, a high-ranking Hamas figure who, since the early 1990s, has led, engineered, and directed Hamas's killing machinery from Gaza. Several failed assassination attempts turned him into a mythical figure—despite his murderous talent, he was seen as unstoppable—but he was killed.

Following this—after an enemy aircraft attack in Tel Aviv and the killing of an Israeli in that attack—an aggressive action led to significant damage at the port of Hudaydah in Yemen, in response to the severe actions taken by the Houthi militias from there on behalf of Tehran, creating a blockade on the Red Sea and international shipping routes from east to west. The damage is immense, affecting the Houthis' ability to continue their terrorist activities as Tehran's proxies.

These two events are joined by additional dramatic incidents in the northern arena—the first being the assassination of Hezbollah's military chief in Beirut, and the second being the killing of a Hamas leader (for which no side has claimed responsibility). This series of events indicates a significant escalation in execution capabilities, sophistication, precision, and, notably, the audacity to strike at the heart of enemy capitals.

At the moment these words are being written, it is evident that the enemy is experiencing confusion and shock—not only from the continuity of the actions but also from their intensity—especially following the severe Hezbollah fire last week and the fatal injury of children playing soccer.

Israel is bringing the campaign to a clear turning point—in the southern arena, a decisive outcome involving the elimination of Hamas leadership and senior figures alongside clearing the area. In the northern arena, creating a deterrence balance against Iran and Hezbollah, sending a message that Israel is not deterred by war, although according to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statements, it prefers a diplomatic settlement.

Decisions will be made in Tehran, as always. The question is whether the Iranians wish to escalate to a regional war or are content with the limited achievements made by Hezbollah and the conflict between Hamas and the IDF.

In recent years, Iranian logic has indicated that Iran is trying to avoid a regional war, both in terms of attempting to "squeeze" a nuclear agreement from the West that would also improve their economic situation and in terms of continuing their control over the Middle East, as they have successfully done in recent decades in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and, as mentioned, Yemen.

Israel's recent offensive actions have sent a clear and precise message—continued Hezbollah activities against the north, especially against civilian populations, will escalate responses and lead to a full-scale war. Israel is prepared for this situation, with plans and trained forces, and the question is which direction the Ayatollahs will take the campaign.

However, it is possible that the Iranians see the situation as a "window of opportunity" to implement the scheme they have declared for years, which is the destruction of the State of Israel. It is not unlikely that Iran will decide to launch a full-scale regional campaign focused on destructive strikes against Israel, involving all the Quds Force branches they have developed over the past twenty years.

This time window is favorable for them in two respects: first, the situation in the United States, deeply embroiled in political conflict creating external weakness, and second, the Israeli society, despite its impressive mobilization for war, with internal events in Israel from the Iranian perspective indicating weakness.

These two vulnerabilities require thoughtful responses from the leaders in the United States and Israel—Israeli societal cohesion alongside a demonstration of solidarity through increased U.S. military presence would deter the Iranians from action. This involves complex leadership efforts from heads of state who are contentious within their own countries, but it is their moment.

To a large extent, the leadership of Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu is facing an ultimate test right now, not only in terms of war but also from a historical perspective of a global process influenced by events in the Middle East. The key is leadership transcending narrow political considerations—this is the moment leaders are tested, and at its core, their understanding that they are shaping history in practice.

Image - Reuters