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301 Daily War Analysis: Oct. 9, 2024

Dr. Doron Matza writes each day a summary/analysis of the events of war on all fronts and their significance. If you want to understand the meaning BEHIND the headlines - this is perfect for you!

NEWSRAEL: Israel is winning this war against Iran - and in a spectacular way. The world has to deal with a different Israel than they are used to!

1. Israel, according to the impression, grew and not for the first time into the event into the war.

2. The current top Hezbollah leader, Naim Kasem,  spoke last night  about readiness for an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon.

3. These are undoubtedly signs of a break and his statements are probably not disconnected from the interest and wishes of their patron - Iran, which is coordinated with the movement.

4. This is of course not enough. A cease-fire without a "new order" is like an agreement with Hamas in Gaza that does not include any kind of surrender, folding, and all kinds of other matters that are critical for Israel.

5. The impression is that Israel managed to take the sting out of this bee called Hezbollah and despite the missiles flying into Israeli territory, including Haifa, its ability to generate significant opposition to Israel, to the residents of the north and in general... has greatly diminished.

6. Now the negotiations on the new order in Lebanon have actually begun, but the impression is that Israel is facing a much newer and shinier order than Hezbollah can imagine, at least judging by the words of the Prime Minister yesterday who called on the Lebanese people (if there is one..) to stand up and shake off the hold of Hezbollah.

7. It is of course too early for such a new and internal order. Many days, weeks and months of Israeli pressure will pass before this arrangement is realized. And in any case it is important to remember, this is Lebanon and Lebanon is a mess of a country and has never been politically and socially a paradise or something approaching a normal country.

8. By the way, Netanyahu spoke in the same terms about another order. Not only in Lebanon but in Iran. And this may teach about Israel's ambition to realize the turning point of this war for matters that go far beyond the cessation of war or a limited withdrawal of one or another factor.

9. The spirit of this ambition is also evident in the game that Israel is playing against the USA. The Prime Minister keeps his cards close to his chest. He prevented the second efforts of the Biden-Harris administration when they invited Defense Minister Gallant to try to pressure him and Netanyahu the PM decision to not allow Gallant's trip transmits much more independence of action and decision than ever before regarding Jerusalem's response to the second Iranian attack on Israel last week.

10. If Netanyahu wants a new regional order, then the response cannot remain limited to attacking Iranian military bases - a move that does not have much strategic value. Passing messages is nice but too dangerous and not effective. This is perhaps what worries the Americans that "their order in the Middle East is completely different from that of Jerusalem and they are in containment efforts in the face of what in their view could complicate them in a conflict with Tehran which they seek to contain. Again.

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Comments
Aliza Circle 22:40 09.10.2024
After what Hamas jihad and ISIS did to the Jewish ✡️ people, there will be no ceasefire until they are dead.
Paul Fice, 19:45 09.10.2024
Don't trust the Americans at this point, especially Jobama.
George Brodrick 18:22 09.10.2024
Stopping the trouble makers and creating a new just and fair system of order seems to be Netanyahu’s goal.
[Anonymous] 18:07 09.10.2024
All of Gaza can go to Hell
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