According to Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen, the current electoral landscape favors Trump in the national popular vote, hinting at a broader "political realignment" that could mirror or surpass Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980.

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, Mitchell outlined his predictions just days before the 2024 presidential election. He believes Trump will not only lead nationally but also secure crucial victories in battleground states, potentially flipping Virginia and New Hampshire, with other states like Minnesota and New Mexico possibly following suit.

Mitchell asserted, “What you’re hearing is that the polls are close, and I think that’s incorrect,” emphasizing that many polls indicate a strong victory for Trump. He noted that his independent polling corroborates this trend.

He pointed out the emergence of a “major political realignment,” suggesting that traditional party affiliations are becoming less significant compared to individual support for candidates like Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris. “Pollsters, including us, are struggling to keep pace with this shift,” he remarked.

Highlighting Trump’s historical tendency to outperform polling predictions, Mitchell expressed confidence that Trump would once again exceed expectations in key swing states. He attributed public dissatisfaction with the current administration to a broader disinterest in Harris, stating, “People care that she’s part of the deeply unpopular Biden administration.”

Mitchell described the current race as stable, with Trump consistently maintaining a lead in the national popular vote. “The dynamics haven’t shifted; it’s essentially Trump plus two nationally,” he explained, while noting that Trump's current performance is significantly better than in 2020.

POLLING INSIGHTS

According to Mitchell, Trump’s standing in swing states is stronger than in previous election cycles. He believes that if Trump improves upon his previous national vote margins while swing states follow a similar trend, it could result in a substantial victory. He drew parallels to the 1980 election, noting how Reagan’s broad appeal led to his decisive win.

While some reports show Harris with slight leads, Mitchell contends that many of these polls are misleadingly skewed in her favor. He questioned the integrity of polling methods, suggesting that certain outlets may be attempting to bolster Harris’s image.

Rasmussen’s own data, he explained, has consistently indicated a race locked in at Trump plus two.

SWING STATES AND EARLY VOTING

Mitchell underscored Trump’s strength in swing states and discussed Republican strategies for early voting, which could enhance Trump’s chances. Among voters planning to vote on Election Day, Trump reportedly leads by seven to twelve points, indicating robust support.

He speculated that early voting results in certain states could signal a Trump landslide, noting that if early returns are overwhelmingly in Trump’s favor, media outlets might call the election prematurely.

States like Virginia and New Hampshire could serve as indicators of broader trends, with early Republican turnout in Virginia showing significant strength, even in traditionally Democratic areas.

MEDIA COVERAGE, HARRIS’S IMPACT, AND VOTER ENTHUSIASM

Mitchell suggested that Harris’s nomination may not significantly motivate Democratic voters, as many are primarily driven by fear-based narratives surrounding Trump and abortion issues. Despite a temporary boost in Harris’s favorability due to positive media coverage, he questioned her resonance with Democratic voters in swing states.

He emphasized the high enthusiasm among Trump supporters, although traditional polls may not fully capture this fervor. “Trump’s base is going to show up,” he stated, downplaying the likelihood of Harris outperforming polling predictions across battlegrounds.

Reiterating his belief in an imminent Trump victory, Mitchell concluded, “We’re looking at a scenario akin to 1980 minus Anderson, suggesting a potential Trump plus three nationally.”