According to recent assessments, if the United States launches a military strike against Iran in the near future, Israel is unlikely to be the primary target of Iranian retaliation. And even if attacked, any damage to Israel is expected to be limited.
Over the last two decades, Iran has poured tens of billions of dollars into arming its regional militias — including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and others — to deter Israeli action against its nuclear facilities.
However, the current war has significantly eroded these groups' ability to strike Israel effectively with rockets, ballistic missiles, or anti-tank weapons. Their capacity to carry out ground incursions using elite forces like Radwan and Nujaba has also been severely diminished.
Currently, only the Houthis in Yemen — aligned with Iran — pose an ongoing threat to Israel. Any Iranian-led attack is expected to originate from long distances (1,500–2,000 km) using drones and long-range ballistic missiles.
Most drones can be intercepted before reaching their targets. Those that aren’t intercepted typically cause minimal damage due to their limited payloads and low accuracy. Iran’s stockpile of long-range ballistic missiles is relatively small, and those that remain are known for being imprecise or faulty. Israel's advanced air defense systems can neutralize most threats before they cause significant harm.
Thus, any direct Iranian strike on Israel is likely to have limited strategic impact.
PRIMARY TARGETS: U.S. AND ALLIES
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is more likely to target:
U.S. and British bases in Iraq and the Persian Gulf region — these are close to Iran’s borders and vulnerable to hundreds of short-range, more accurate missiles and drones. Unlike Israel, U.S. air defenses in the region are less advanced.
Oil shipping lanes in the Gulf — Iran could disrupt global markets by using naval drones, sea mines, and anti-ship missiles to target oil tankers.
Gulf allies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait. However, this is considered unlikely, as Tehran wants to avoid alienating the broader Sunni Muslim world.
WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. DO?
It is suggested that the U.S. should clearly warn Iran that any move to block oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz will trigger not just strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, but also targeted elimination of its political and military leadership.