YONI BEN-MENACHEM -- Senior security officials say that after the cyber attack, Hezbollah may transmit written instructions from the military leadership to the forces in the field, using motorcycles - which the IDF will have to locate and intercept.

The IDF spokesman announced early in the morning that the Air Force destroyed about 1,000 launchers in Lebanon, which were ready to fire immediately at Israel. This is a very extensive attack, which was carried out a few hours after the speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. The attacks will continue in the coming days.

The cyber attack on Hezbollah's communications system - pagers, walkie-talkies, etc. - constitutes an operationally important damage to the organization's ability to control and control in the event of an all-out military conflict with Israel. This is what senior security officials estimate.

According to them, Hezbollah is already organizing in various ways in preparation for its vengeful response against Israel. One of the methods he is about to adopt is the transmission of important written instructions and messages from the military leadership to the forces in the field, using motorcycles. One of the tasks of Israeli intelligence will probably be to locate the biker messengers and intercept them from the air using UAVs.

The IDF achieved an important success in relation to the conflict with the "Radwan" force in southern Lebanon. It was able to significantly damage it, eliminate its senior commanders, several dozen in number, and damage its terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon. Several hundred terrorists from this force were also injured in the explosion of the pager devices of organization, which further weakens Hezbollah's power in southern Lebanon.

In the surprise Israeli attack on Hezbollah's communications system, approximately 3,000 terrorists from the mid-level to the organization's leadership were injured.

This is an important achievement, but it is a small percentage of Hezbollah's fighting strength. Although this is an important intelligence and operational achievement, the planning of which probably lasted several years, we must not forget that the entire formidable arsenal of weapons that Hezbollah has was almost unharmed, chiefly the precision missiles.

The tremendous humiliation that Nasrallah and his organization have undergone in the last few days in the media and social networks of the Arab world following the explosions in Lebanon puts great pressure on Nasrallah to lose his judgment and attack Israel.

He is now trying to coordinate with Iran the nature of his military response, which may spell the fate of Hezbollah. It is still difficult to assess whether he is willing to risk and cross the Rubicon towards a full military confrontation with Israel, or whether he will take a step back and agree to a ceasefire to calm the situation.

Israel is preparing for both scenarios. One, that Nasrallah will find a ladder to climb down from the tree and accept the outline of the American mediator Amos Hochstein for a ceasefire; The second, that Nasrallah will continue the war of attrition against Israel and will respond forcefully by firing missiles, rockets and UAVs deep into Israel, including at civilian targets.

Nasrallah is actually at an important decision-making juncture, but the intelligence indications show that he is inclined to go in the direction of escalating against Israel with all his might. Meanwhile he maintains ambiguity.

Only Iran can stop Nasrallah. It is clear that the war in the north cannot end on Hezbollah's terms. If Nasrallah continues his opposition to moving the "Radwan" forces away from the border beyond the Litani River, Israel will have to act with full force against Hezbollah.

In the end, we must not forget that a war between Israel and Hezbollah will be difficult and long. Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of weapons: precision missiles, rockets and UAVs about 150 thousand in number, a network of tunnels several hundred kilometers long and about 100 thousand more fighters. Since the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and until today, this terrorist organization has become an army Terrorism under the nose of the State of Israel.

Hezbollah issued an official statement after the first wave of explosions promising to punish Israel. He cannot now withdraw. All the honor and prestige of Hezbollah and Nasrallah are now at stake. The Shia community in Lebanon is also waiting to see how he will react. It seems that he will have a hard time finding a ladder to get down from the tree without forcefully attacking Israel.